This fight night should present several excellent live betting opportunities, with the easiest to spot being the main event of Chris Weidman vs Kelvin Gastelum.
While things have not gone his way lately, Chris Weidman is still a very dangerous fighter with tremendous wrestling. Even counting this bad run, Weidman has never lost a first round in his career. Typically, Weidman is able to overwhelm his opponents early and get them to the ground; this should be the case against the much smaller Gastelum.
While there is absolutely nothing wrong with betting Weidman outright at his artificially inflated line of over +150, keeping your finger on the live bet button is the way to go. This is a five round fight, and lately Weidman has been showing fatigue after two. So, if he doesn’t get a finish in the first 10 minutes, momentum could easily shift in the favor of Gastelum who can use his speed and boxing to pick Weidman apart.
This is a common narrative that suggests betting on Weidman (or even Weidman ITD), and then live betting Gastelum after the first or second round as the optimal play. It is very unlikely that Kelvin finishes Weidman in within the first two rounds, making this a safer play than just betting Gastelum straight. Kelvin’s line is also artificially inflated, and I would not recommend any play on it at the current odds, as the fight should be much closer to a pick’em. But, after likely spending most of the first round on his back, his odds could soar as high as +200.
In short, the optimal way to play the UFC Long Island main event is by placing a prefight bet on Chris Weidman, with the intention of live betting Gastelum after rounds 1 or 2.